Oil rose by a record $10+ today, to an all time high of just under $140 per barrel. This contributed to the stock market falling by nearly 400 points. When lumped in with the credit crisis and the sub-prime mess, a lot of people are worrying if this is the financial equivalent of “the big one”.
First things first. DON’T PANIC!!!
As Jim Cramer often says, “Nobody ever made a dime by panicking.”. He’s right. Looking at Yahoo! Finance’s take on the stock market today, it looks like this was nothing more than the market reacting to a prediction by Morgan Stanley that oil would be at $150 a barrel by July 4th.
That’s it.
A prediction.
I don’t about you, but I don’t think Morgan Stanley has a better crysal ball than the rest of us. Numbers were already released not two weeks ago that people were driving less for the first time in decades. Demand was slowing for gasoline. Oil was beginning to decline. I’m more inclined to belive hard data than some company’s prognostications any day. I know, I know “Lies, damned lies and statistics”. You can use numbers to justify almost anything. But hey, at least these are real numbers!
My second point: I think it’s a head fake. Everyone is getting hysterical and the shorts are calling them on it. I looked at my holdings in the ultra-short oil fund (DUG), which should have been down HUGE today. It was actually UP about 2.5%!!! Cooler heads are prevailing here. They know this oil pop was going to be over when the sun went down.
That was all the convincing I needed. I sold the rest of my position in USO today. Yep! More cab fare home! Maybe enough left over for some ice cream. No, I mean the good stuff! I’m talking Maggie Moo’s baby!
If you can’t beat them join them.
I think the shorts are calling this spike in oil total B.S. by Morgan Stanley hysteria. I’m betting oil goes down on Monday.